Protest Update

Well the rallies are underway but unfortunately, there's no time for me to cover them! So I point you in the direction of Neeka's Backlog and these excellent sites;

http://www.ukranews.com/eng/

http://www.interfax.kiev.ua/eng/

A full analysis tomorrow evening...

A Short Update

Exactly what is going to happen tomorrow?

A Kyiv court has now ordered all political rallies scheduled for Saturday are....banned. Whilst the justification for this - that rival demonstrations might spark bloodshed - is reasonable, I can't help but wonder exactly who is winning from this situation. Yanukovych will now not have to risk the humiliation of his rally tomorrow being dwarfed by that of the Orange forces, so a big plus for him. A plus for Yushchenko as well? His party had been calling for protestors to gather tomorrow evening, but then as I mentioned above, a 180 degree turn from Poroshenko earlier may have cast OU's participation into doubt. With a party congress due tomorrow, is Our Ukraine on the verge of growing a spine, kicking people like Poroshenko (those purely interested in immunity from prosecution) and turning into the first real political party (in the Western sense) in Ukraine's history? Or is instead about to be kicked into touch by an ever weak Yushchenko?

These rallies may still go ahead tomorrow without the authorities permission, but with the OU Congress due, another crucial chapter in Ukraine's history is about to be completed.

I once more leave the final word to Our Ukraine faction leader Vyacheslav Kyrylenko;

“If we don’t take decisive steps and don’t hold early parliamentary elections, we will hardly have...elections in 2011. 101% citizens of every region will vote for what the government wants...the “anti-crisis” coalition is back to it's old corruption schemes in economics...Democracy and respect for people means nothing for them. Neither the government, nor the factions of the “anti-crisis” coalition have drawn conclusions after the Maidan events of 2004”.

Thoughts on Ukraine...

Just a short post - please place your comments on the crisis below.

Im now unsure as to whether Yushchenko actually wants to disband Parliament. Bearing in mind the alleged bribery that took place prior to Yanukovych's appointment last summer, are we witnessing a repeat scenario? Has Yanukovych plucked up another tale of corruption to intimidate the President?

Something makes me think that Yush is quite happy to allow the Anti-Crisis Coalition to continue ruling, but is just trying to make sure that it does not get any bigger. Why? Well Our Ukraine is unlikely to beat, or even equal it's showing at the last ballot in any fresh elections. In the short term Yush needs to guarantee that Deputies such as Kinakh aren't jumping ship and damaging the party's already dented reputation. He may also be hoping that with time his party can strengthen in popularity, and all of the current governing blocs can be given enough rope to hang themselves out of the next VR.

Our Ukraine certainly seem to be getting nervous about future elections...with only around 50 mandates likely for next time around, big business hitters such as Poroshenko risk losing that crucial immunity from prosecution. The non-political financers of the party will be well aware that Our Ukraine must ditch these business links and become a professional party if it is to start picking up votes. Just how far down the list could Poroshenko fall?

Ukraine: Heading Towards Fresh Elections or Violence?

As I mentioned a few days ago, one year on from Parliamentary elections, Ukraine is in a very dark stage of it's development. As Yanukovych continues trying to increase the size of his coalition, Yushchenko and the opposition are stepping up a gear in their battle with the PoR.

Much has been made in the (relatively) main-stream media of the recent slaying of 'Mad' Max Kurochkin as he exited court on Tuesday. Whilst this proves the incompetence of the Yanukovych government, in my view it doesn't hold much in connection with the current political crisis.

To recap, Anatoliy Kinakh, an Our Ukraine lawmaker, and Yushchenko associate 'defected' to the Ukrainian government on Wednesday of last week. Within 24 hours he had assumed the position of Minister for Economy, Our Ukraine had expelled him, and Yushchenko had denounced him. By the end of the week 11 former Our Ukraine and BYuT deputies had joined the government and the aforementioned darkness appeared to be settling.

Yet the bleak picture was not to last, as in the same week, Yuri Lutsenko, the former Interior Minister who had appeared to be facing intimidation from his successors, was cleared by a Kyiv court on counts of corruption and holding joint Israeli citizenship. Yesterday, Yushchenko forwarded a letter to the Verkhovna Rada demanding that deputies respect the constitution. It would appear that Kinakh's betrayal the previous week had in fact been against the rules of the basic law.

As Chapter IV states; the 'powers of a...Deputy...shall terminate prior to the expiration of his or her term in office in the event of; his or her failure, as having been elected from a political party (an electoral bloc of political parties), to join the parliamentary faction representing the same political party (the same electoral bloc of political parties) or his or her withdrawal from such a faction. In addition...'A coalition of parliamentary factions in the VR of Ukraine shall be formed within a month from the date of the first meeting of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine,'

Seems pretty clear to me. Under the original version of the Constitution, Kinakh would have been well within his rights to join the government, but given the 2004 ammendments, this is no longer the case. The added articles clearly support the vision that people are voting primarily for their parties, and not for individual MP's (whom they are unable to specifically choose using the PR system) . Afterall, why should the millions of supporters of Our Ukraine see their vote effectively siphoned off to the Party of Regions as a result of Kinakh's bed hopping? Furthermore the decision to rename the Anti-Crisis Coalition and to include new members from other blocs would appear to infact, legally, be forming an entirely new government...something Yanukovych is unable to do under the Constitution. This further muddies the waters over Kinakh's actions.

Well, this new argument appears to have been taken on board by President Yushchenko, and today the rhetoric stepped up a level...

Ukraine held its first fair and democratic parliamentary elections on March 26, 2006. My ultimate belief both before and after that vote was that one must adhere to democratic standards and preserve law and order.
However, I must admit that fulfillment of political obligations and responsibility for the country’s fate and people’s welfare have not become a crucial motive for many Ukrainian lawmakers.

In the past eight months, we have all been witnesses to deliberate attacks on the country’s constitutional order and a permanent power struggle violating the will of our voters. The country has seen many cynical political intrigues in the past year, but what is truly threatening is the conspicuous tendency to usurp power. The Verkhovna Rada launched an impudent and fearless campaign to entice some deputies into the ruling coalition despite the national law.

What is happening in the Verkhovna Rada now is not just a rebirth of the coalition but a blatant revision of the will of the Ukrainian voters. It is a direct path to anarchy.

All these actions create reasons to say that the parliamentary majority is unconstitutional and the government illegitimate. This must be immediately changed. As President, I demand that the parliamentary majority and its government stop acting unconstitutionally. I call on the Constitutional Court of Ukraine to immediately announce their rulings on the most controversial and important issues and insist that parliament pass a bill containing key agreements between the majority and opposition forces aimed at the fulfillment of strategic priorities of the country and its citizens.

The period of ineffective round tables is over now. Our politicians must be responsible for what they do, otherwise the Ukrainian nation will speak out.

A final warning perhaps? The coalition certainly seems to think so, with Deputy VR Chairman Adam Martyniuk holding an 'extraordinary' session of Parliament to discuss moves by Yushchenko. The Communist politician also claimed early elections were being scheduled for Sunday, May 27. This claim would appear to be supported by the announcement from Yushchenko of a meeting scheduled for April 2nd with the heads of all political parties. Under the constitution such a measure is essential before the Head of State can dissolve parliament.

Whatever Yushchenko chooses to do he must tread carefully. A mass rally is due at Independence Square on Saturday, uniting BYuT, Our Ukraine and Lutsenko's People’s Self-Defense organization. Yet Yanukovych is already sending in the troops, announcing today that his party will hold it's own rival rallies between March 29th-April 3rd. Nice timing. Starting just before the main Opposition meeting, and finishing just after the President may dissolve parliament. As I mentioned last time, Yushchenko must bare this in mind and tread carefully before reaching any decision.

Yanukovych has been out of power once before, and with the political landscape of Ukraine seemingly moving against him, the PoR leader will be well aware that any fresh ballot could usher in a BYuT/OU coalition to govern from now until the end of time. In addition to this, the only thing that prevented troops firing on demonstrators during the Orange Revolution was the refusal of then President Leonid Kuchma to push the Interior Ministry in such a direction. This time however, the President does not hold such powers. These lie with the current Minister of Interior who, whilst being a 'Socialist', has been busying himself in recent months dismissing heads of police appointed under Orange governments, left, right and centre. The possibility that Yanukovych won't go quietly is very real.

Keep watching this space and Foreign Notes for more on the situation. Mark my words, the political temperature is rising and we could be heading towards a series of crucial months for Ukraine.

Dark Days In Ukraine

It's taken a chain of events in Ukraine to power me back into blogging but whilst im taking 4 weeks to recharge my batteries after a stressful semester at Uni, this page is fully back in action!

For those of you who haven't been following events in Ukraine since the Orange Revolution, here's a quick recap. Following free and fair Parliamentary elections, the party of President Viktor Yushchenko (Our Ukraine) and of charismatic former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko (BYuT) were left out in the cold. The Party of Regions, led by ex-Presidential candidate, and Kuchma associate Viktor Yanukovych, was able to assemble a bizzare coalition between themselves (a party of Big Buisness and managed with an iron fist), the Socialists (a party known for consistently supporting Democracy since 1991, and with some relatively old school economics) and the Communists (anti-Western, anti-Capitalists). Much to the suprise of naive Western journalists who seem to be under the impression that this 'Anti-Crisis Coalition' is of the same creed as any German or Czech equivalent (a home of negotiation and moderate politics) the current government has remained intact for almost 9 months. Perhaps the alleged brown envelopes tucked under Socialist leader Moroz's bedroom door hold the key to this?

With many Westerners falling for the hot gas coming from, former convict, Yanukovych's mouth, hope had arrived that Ukrainian democracy was maturing and that the days of rigged elections, poisonings and police thuggery were over. For a time this may have appeared to be semi-believable, yet events in the past few days strike a worrying trend that could see one of Europe's newest Democracies pushed into a very dangerous situation indeed.

Since the dismissal of Interior Minister Yuri Lutsenko in 2006, tensions between the coalition on one side, and the President and opposition on the other have been growing.

Lutsenko has himself established a new 'movement' (basically a political party, although as yet unregistered), which has been garnering crowds in former Regions and Communist hot-spots such as Kharkov that the current Prime Minister can only dream of.

Infact the Regions have seen their public support slide significantly in the past few months. Yes, they've returned to their old ways - handing out jobs to the boys, shying away from any sort of transparency, and busying themselves with all manner of business other than improving the lives of their own electorate. Yet this isn't Ukaine 2002. The media is much freer now, and people can see for themselves that whilst Yushchenko and Tymoshenko may have had corruption swirling around them, and may well have proved ineffective in certain areas, they're in a completely different league to Yanukovych. Thus, the populist slogans of the Centre-Left BYuT, coupled with Tymoshenko's anti-NATO stance hold great appeal to the largely Russian speaking East (Yanukovych's core supporters).

In addition to this growth in popularity, Viktor and Yulia appear to have stopped messing about and finally formed a joint opposition in the Ukrainian Parliament (Verkohvna Rada). Using the threat of Yushchenko's veto (and the 200+ votes of the two blocs to prevent it being overriden) Yanukovych has been forced into action. The minimum wage has been increased and unrealistically high local tariffs have been overturned across the nation. All this makes Yanukovych understandably unhappy. Yet rather than start counter-acting the Orange forces moves with propositions of his own, the Prime Minister has adopted a tried, tested and failed technique. Simply negotiate with the weak and vulnerable (Yushchenko - who is allegedly compromised over information the PoR hold against certain family members), bribe (allegedly) anyone who's ideological committments are weakest, and pin the rest of the opposition up against a wall.

This has take on 3 main forms in the past few weeks.

Yet another 'Round Table' - that's code for useless talking shop where Yanukovych and Moroz spin Yushchenko a pack of lies and apologise for being naughty - occurred earlier in the week where certain agreements were reached, including in regard to the appointment of a new Foreign Minister. Sorry, I should take a step back and mention that Ukraine has been without such an official for several months now since the government sacked Borys Tarasiuk in January, and refused to approve all subsequent nominations from the President. Infact only today, less than 24 hours after reaching a compromise, the Rada once again rejected Yushchenko's nomination. It would seem the government won't rest until one of it's own has been nominated, so one can only guess how that will play out in the coming weeks.

Today, Anatoliy Kinakh, an Our Ukraine lawmaker, and Yushchenko associate seemingly 'defected' to the Ukrainian government. Some bloggers and forum posters have alleged this to be as a result of a bribe, something that seems increasingly possible given the bizzare about-turn Moroz made in July. This could potentially leave Yushchenko's party with 10 fewer MP's and the government closing in on it's target of 300 deputies by the end of the year. This number would allow Yanukovych to change the constitution and could render the Presidency purely symbolic - or even worse impeach the hero of the Orange Revolution. Unless Our Ukraine can expel the dissenting members, things are certainly looking much bleaker in the Rada.

Pinned up against the wall? Well I point to these two outrageously Soviet attempts to silence the opposition that occurred just today. Firstly Lutsenko's flat was searched, without a warrant, by the police looking for weapons and an Israeli passport (a good bit of anti-semitism to whip up some hatred for an increasingly popular man). Secondly, and largely unnoticed was this. The cancellation of the political talk show 'Toloka' on state television. Clearly Yanukoych is latching on to the disadvantages of an uncontrolled media.

All of these events add up to a very dark stage in the development of Ukraine. President Yushchenko can still dissolve parliament and call fresh elections under certain conditions. Yet the Constitutional Court is still in the process of deciding if some of those conditions have been reached. The refusal by Parliament to approve Yushchenko's nominee to the Foreign Ministry could prove crucial in disbanding the current Rada. Yet this policy seems fraught with potential danger. Yanukovych has been out of power once before, and with the political landscape of Ukraine seemingly moving towards a 3-party system, the PoR leader will be well aware that any fresh ballot could usher in a BYuT/OU coalition to govern from now until the end of time. In addition to this, the only thing that prevented troops firing on demonstrators during the Orange Revolution was the refusal of then President Leonid Kuchma to push the Interior Ministry in such a direction. This time however, the President does not hold such powers. These lie with the current Minister of Interior who, whilst being a 'Socialist', has been busying himself in recent months dismissing heads of police appointed under Orange governments, left, right and centre. The possibility that Yanukovych won't go quietly is very real. As is the potential that more VR deputies can be bought off by the PoR.

Yet the situation is not hopeless. Yulia Tymoshenko may proove to be the only figure who can prevent Ukraine sliding back to it's authoritarian days. Yanukovych may well appreciate that the population of Western Ukraine will never bend to his will - the Orange Revolution demonstrated this - yet, may still think such an occurance can take place in the East. Do not be suprised if any disquiet in the East is harshly dealt with - the government cannot afford to lose any face amongst it's core of supporters. Yet if Yulia, and to a lesser extent Lutsenko, can rally Eastern Ukraine around themeselves, and show what a thug and enemy of the people Yanukovych is, the Party of Regions could be pushed out of power. It's true to say that the Orange Revolution only really occurred in the West and Centre of Ukraine, with the East largely uninvolved and still perceiving the 'Oranges' as the enemy. PoR was able to exploit this whilst in opposition, because it wasn't actually in a position to do anything, and could thus promise the moon to Eastern Ukraine as opposed to the squabbling 'Westerners'. However, with an unfettered media and a useless government, the East appears to be awakening. People must ask themselves why it is the East that is witnessing the largest demonstrations, either in favour of Lutsenko or against government policies. In addition to this, in the past few weeks 'Donbass' a newspaper largely associated with the PoR has become increasingly critical of the government. It today denounced the raids against Lutsenko, and has offered some support to BYuT in recent months. It would seem that even they are unable to place a positive spin on current events in Ukraine.

The tide is turning, and an opportunity is arising for Ukraine. Yet don't underestimate the determination of Yanukovych to hold on to power at all costs. The Orange Revolution will either mature or be murdered on the streets of the East. And that point is coming ever closer....

I leave the final words to the leader of Our Ukraine, Vyacheslav Kyrylenko...

“Our Ukraine can’t keep working in the parliament on the back of political repressions, that take place in the country...the search of the appartment of Orange revolution activist Yuri Lutsenko is being conducted at the moment. It does not mean that the government fights against criminals. [Such] structures return to their old method of reprisals against politicians. Every citizen has a right to express his or her opinion, including public protest. If the...structures and the Prosecutor’s Office don’t accept that, as well as the government and the majority, it means Ukraine is back to autumn 2004. We will face threats, repressions, blackmail and other methods from Kuchma times. Today’s events give us proof, that as the “anti-crisis” coalition does not react at the united opposition’s declaration concerning Tsushko and Medvedko (Interior Minister and Prosecutor General), it means they support them. The lawsuit against Lutsenko is just a beginning.”