Events Overnight

I can't post any of these stories as they're subscription, but here is what's been happening overnight;

• Yulia Tymoshenko announced a joint list of Democratic forces for the election

• The VR Banned the Cabinet from allocating money for holding early elections.

• The VR appealled to the Constitutional Court regarding its dismissal

• The VR Reinstated the Central Election Commission that falsified the 2004 election

• Yanukovych addressed the nation

***I've been informed by several people that there were no clashes overnight. I would likely to point out that I was merely relaying information I had received, as I frequently do. Unfortunately from my position in London I can't always independently verify such accounts. We all hope that there will be no violence during this period, and that Ukraine hold peaceful elections. Based on the claims of others I have decided to remove this bullet point.

Yanukovych Travels Back In Time

It's November 2004 in Ukraine. Well it might as well be, thanks to PM Viktor Yanukovych. Quite what his American spin doctors are making of his actions tonight we can only imagine.

As Foreign Notes have been claiming Yanu is finally showing his true colours, and has decided to stamp his feet and throw a hissy fit.

One of the first such moves was the decision by the VR (minus the Orange forces) to ignore the Presidential decree. Now whilst I can in part sympathise with the position of Moroz and other crooks, who don't want to lose their government jobs, this is hardly a constructive way of going about things. Would it not be better to take this to the electorate? To tell people how outrageous the President's actions are? Will ignoring Yushchenko really do PoR any favours? Does it show that they're afraid of elections?

The second move, which even suprised me a little was the vote to re-instate the man who falsified the Presidential election of 2004 - Serhiy Kivalov. Surely Yanukovych has played a very foolish card here. There is no real reason to replace the current CEC because as the PM himself has noted, the March 2006 elections were fully democratic. Furthermore all Yanu achieves by passing this vote is to aggrevate the opposition, and possibly a few swing voters, who were now leaning towards supporting Yulia anyway. What makes me laugh about this most foolish of decree's is that it won't be executed. Yush will just veto it, and the Orange parties will never help the government to override the decision. It's just throwing a hissy fit for the sake of it.

So what is the PM going to do? Don't be suprised if the Constitutional Court takes a very long time reaching a conclusion about the legality of this decree before 'agreeing' with Yanukovych.

As I mentioned earlier, we are in very dangerous waters tonight. If the parliament refuses to dissolve, then it can be considered illegitimate by pro-Yushchenko voters. Yet the decree itself raises questions about Yushchenko's legitimacy. To ignore the President is a road to nowhere - the President won't sign any of the governments bills, and they therefore either become worthless measures, or they are illegally implemented by simply ignoring the need for the Head of State to sign them into law. That in itself would be highly unconstitutional, and can only lead to violent confrontations.

In the next few days we'll hear much about legitimacy, with each side claiming to exclusively hold it. Yet the truth is the situation is an absolute legal mess.

To reiterate a point I made a few weeks back Yanukovych won't go quietly. He has been out of power once before, and with the political landscape of Ukraine seemingly moving towards a 3-party system, the PoR leader will be well aware that any fresh ballot could usher in a BYuT/OU coalition to govern from now until the end of time. In addition to this, the only thing that prevented troops firing on demonstrators during the Orange Revolution was the refusal of then President Leonid Kuchma to push the Interior Ministry in such a direction. This time however, the President does not hold such powers. These lie with the current Minister of Interior who, whilst being a 'Socialist', has been busying himself in recent months dismissing heads of police appointed under Orange governments, left, right and centre.

I end tonight though with a message of hope.

Since the Orange Revolution, I have not heard of one major incident where the police turned their truncheons on protestors. Low and Mid-Level Interior personnel appear to have climbed a psychological hill since 2004. I strongly doubt that the men and women who witnessed the peaceful outcome of Maidan, and the free and fair ballots that followed have 'the fear' anymore. The fear that there will never be change, and that to refuse orders will lead to dismissal or even violence directed at oneself. They will not betray the people's will. Neither will the low and mid level staff of the Central Election Commission, who faced the same battle, and know they can achieve peace and Democracy again.

As I mentioned before, it's true to say that the Orange Revolution only really occurred in the West and Centre of Ukraine, with the East largely uninvolved and still perceiving the 'Oranges' as the enemy. PoR was able to exploit this whilst in opposition, because it wasn't actually in a position to do anything, and could thus promise the moon to Eastern Ukraine as opposed to the squabbling 'Westerners'. However, with an unfettered media and a useless government, the East appears to be awakening. People must ask themselves why it was the East that witnessed the largest demonstrations in recent weeks, either in favour of Lutsenko or against government policies. In addition to this, in the past few weeks 'Donbass' a newspaper largely associated with the PoR has become increasingly critical of the government. These changes are not cosmetic, and the East truly is realising what a government led by Viktor Yanukovych actually entails.

The childish actions from the PoR hotheads tonight will impress nobody - not even their own supporters. It will be difficult for Yanukovych to go back to his recent tact of paying lip-service to Democracy now. Tonight he has truly embarassed himself, and it is plain for all to see that he is a dictatorial thug.

The stakes are higher, but the Orange Revolution may well be about to be completed...

Dissolved

Well he's proved me wrong, and possibly assured his place (in at least Western) Ukraine's history books. The Rada is dissolved and fresh elections are on the way for May 27th as earlier predicted.

Speaking to the nation this evening Yushchenko said "I dissolve the parliament, not because it's my right but because it's required...The current parliament is breaking the constitution and it threatens our country's future.''

Are we seeing early reprisals though? Not too sure what to make of this. The Ukrainian Parliament is currently in emergency session, and there appears to be a flurry of activity (although only the coalition parties are meeting). Apparently 'Yanukovych and top government officials sat in the hall looking glum as the speaker of the Parliament, Oleksandr Moroz told lawmakers that Yushchenko had no legal basis to make such a decision'. According to sources the Rada is debating a resolution branding any order by Yushchenko to dissolve parliament unconstitutional. Something tells me we're on the verge of a long period of wrangling. Let's hope things can be resolved peacefully.

Yushchenko has appealed for calm

"The political situation in Ukraine is under control and remains stable. The presidential decree to dissolve the parliament is subject to execution. I warn all hotheads against any unlawful deeds and moves. I am appealing to all citizens of Ukraine. We are passing a difficult but democratic way. Don't yield to any provocative action."

Wise words

However with the rhetoric coming from all sides things could be about to get incredibly dangerous. More is at stake now than during the Orange Revolution. PoR won't go quietly, the next scheduled elections after May will be over 2 years away and Moroz's career is on the line...

Your thoughts?

Coalition Attempts To Talk It's Way Out Of Crisis

Apologies for not posting yesterday, was pretty unwell all day.

Well the rallies did infact take place on Saturday, and thankfully were virtually incident free. Different estimates exist about exactly how many people showed up, but conservative estimates put both meetings at around 30, 000 a piece. Some have even claimed that 70, 000 turned up for the opposition gathering - something that visuals I have seen would certainly seem to back up.

There were few suprises during the rally, with the expected reactions from all sides, yet whilst these demonstrations went on, Yushchenko was busy demonstrating his position at the Our Ukraine congress. It was good to see the President on the attack - a position he seems more comfortable in than as part of a government. Yet for all the chatter, Monday is a new day, and a crucial point for Ukrainian politics.

As planned, crisis talks have been underway all afternoon between the leaders of the VR factions. Whilst these talks are necessary under the Constitution before the President can dissolve Parliament, im increasingly becoming convinced that Yushchenko has no intention of dissolving the Rada. As I mentioned a few days ago certain events lead me to believe that Yush is quite happy to allow the Anti-Crisis Coalition to continue ruling provided that it doesn't get any bigger. The violations of the Constitution from the Party of Regions have been numerous, and their murky economic policies should provide enough ammunition to boot Yanukovych out of power. Yet the President is only focusing on this one issue - the defection of Kinakh to the government.

The only explanations I can offer for this fall on two points. The first being that Our Ukraine is unlikely to beat, or even equal it's showing at the last ballot in any fresh elections. In the short term Yush needs to guarantee that Deputies such as Kinakh aren't jumping ship and damaging the party's already dented reputation. He may be hoping that with time his party can strengthen in popularity, and the current governing blocs can be given enough rope to hang themselves out of the next VR.

Yet I believe Tymoshenko is a more important factor guiding the President's decisions. Yush sacked her in 2005 as she got ever so close to investigating members of his own inner circle for corruption (although problems were emerging in the economy from her populist measures). Yushchenko's unwillingness to appoint her PM (and the behind the scenes negotiating with PoR) after the 2006 elections may well have hinged on this issue, and the fear that the President had should Tymoshenko have gained power. We have to ask ourselves has this situation between the two Orange leaders really changed since last year? I don't think so. Furthermore, whilst Yanukovych may well be a corrupt crook, at least he isn't setting up enquiries into Yushchenko's associates. This is what the issue really boils down to. Yushchenko may well be more interested in protecting the interests of people like Porshenko - a major thorn in Tymoshenko's side - than kicking out this increasingly authoritarian government.

Yushchenko is due to announce his decision later, but has Adam Martyniuk provided a way out of the crisis for the government? If this temporary moratorium is enforced, the President will have lost the only reason he seems to find strong enough to dissolve the Rada. He might suprise us all, but im betting that Yushchenko blows this last chance to show he has some guts, and decides to negotiate with the government. The more the Anti-Crisis Coalition can make Yushchenko look weak, the greater the drop in support for him and his party, and thus the smaller the chance of VR dissolution.

Stay tuned...

Protest Update

Well the rallies are underway but unfortunately, there's no time for me to cover them! So I point you in the direction of Neeka's Backlog and these excellent sites;

http://www.ukranews.com/eng/

http://www.interfax.kiev.ua/eng/

A full analysis tomorrow evening...

A Short Update

Exactly what is going to happen tomorrow?

A Kyiv court has now ordered all political rallies scheduled for Saturday are....banned. Whilst the justification for this - that rival demonstrations might spark bloodshed - is reasonable, I can't help but wonder exactly who is winning from this situation. Yanukovych will now not have to risk the humiliation of his rally tomorrow being dwarfed by that of the Orange forces, so a big plus for him. A plus for Yushchenko as well? His party had been calling for protestors to gather tomorrow evening, but then as I mentioned above, a 180 degree turn from Poroshenko earlier may have cast OU's participation into doubt. With a party congress due tomorrow, is Our Ukraine on the verge of growing a spine, kicking people like Poroshenko (those purely interested in immunity from prosecution) and turning into the first real political party (in the Western sense) in Ukraine's history? Or is instead about to be kicked into touch by an ever weak Yushchenko?

These rallies may still go ahead tomorrow without the authorities permission, but with the OU Congress due, another crucial chapter in Ukraine's history is about to be completed.

I once more leave the final word to Our Ukraine faction leader Vyacheslav Kyrylenko;

“If we don’t take decisive steps and don’t hold early parliamentary elections, we will hardly have...elections in 2011. 101% citizens of every region will vote for what the government wants...the “anti-crisis” coalition is back to it's old corruption schemes in economics...Democracy and respect for people means nothing for them. Neither the government, nor the factions of the “anti-crisis” coalition have drawn conclusions after the Maidan events of 2004”.

Thoughts on Ukraine...

Just a short post - please place your comments on the crisis below.

Im now unsure as to whether Yushchenko actually wants to disband Parliament. Bearing in mind the alleged bribery that took place prior to Yanukovych's appointment last summer, are we witnessing a repeat scenario? Has Yanukovych plucked up another tale of corruption to intimidate the President?

Something makes me think that Yush is quite happy to allow the Anti-Crisis Coalition to continue ruling, but is just trying to make sure that it does not get any bigger. Why? Well Our Ukraine is unlikely to beat, or even equal it's showing at the last ballot in any fresh elections. In the short term Yush needs to guarantee that Deputies such as Kinakh aren't jumping ship and damaging the party's already dented reputation. He may also be hoping that with time his party can strengthen in popularity, and all of the current governing blocs can be given enough rope to hang themselves out of the next VR.

Our Ukraine certainly seem to be getting nervous about future elections...with only around 50 mandates likely for next time around, big business hitters such as Poroshenko risk losing that crucial immunity from prosecution. The non-political financers of the party will be well aware that Our Ukraine must ditch these business links and become a professional party if it is to start picking up votes. Just how far down the list could Poroshenko fall?

Ukraine: Heading Towards Fresh Elections or Violence?

As I mentioned a few days ago, one year on from Parliamentary elections, Ukraine is in a very dark stage of it's development. As Yanukovych continues trying to increase the size of his coalition, Yushchenko and the opposition are stepping up a gear in their battle with the PoR.

Much has been made in the (relatively) main-stream media of the recent slaying of 'Mad' Max Kurochkin as he exited court on Tuesday. Whilst this proves the incompetence of the Yanukovych government, in my view it doesn't hold much in connection with the current political crisis.

To recap, Anatoliy Kinakh, an Our Ukraine lawmaker, and Yushchenko associate 'defected' to the Ukrainian government on Wednesday of last week. Within 24 hours he had assumed the position of Minister for Economy, Our Ukraine had expelled him, and Yushchenko had denounced him. By the end of the week 11 former Our Ukraine and BYuT deputies had joined the government and the aforementioned darkness appeared to be settling.

Yet the bleak picture was not to last, as in the same week, Yuri Lutsenko, the former Interior Minister who had appeared to be facing intimidation from his successors, was cleared by a Kyiv court on counts of corruption and holding joint Israeli citizenship. Yesterday, Yushchenko forwarded a letter to the Verkhovna Rada demanding that deputies respect the constitution. It would appear that Kinakh's betrayal the previous week had in fact been against the rules of the basic law.

As Chapter IV states; the 'powers of a...Deputy...shall terminate prior to the expiration of his or her term in office in the event of; his or her failure, as having been elected from a political party (an electoral bloc of political parties), to join the parliamentary faction representing the same political party (the same electoral bloc of political parties) or his or her withdrawal from such a faction. In addition...'A coalition of parliamentary factions in the VR of Ukraine shall be formed within a month from the date of the first meeting of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine,'

Seems pretty clear to me. Under the original version of the Constitution, Kinakh would have been well within his rights to join the government, but given the 2004 ammendments, this is no longer the case. The added articles clearly support the vision that people are voting primarily for their parties, and not for individual MP's (whom they are unable to specifically choose using the PR system) . Afterall, why should the millions of supporters of Our Ukraine see their vote effectively siphoned off to the Party of Regions as a result of Kinakh's bed hopping? Furthermore the decision to rename the Anti-Crisis Coalition and to include new members from other blocs would appear to infact, legally, be forming an entirely new government...something Yanukovych is unable to do under the Constitution. This further muddies the waters over Kinakh's actions.

Well, this new argument appears to have been taken on board by President Yushchenko, and today the rhetoric stepped up a level...

Ukraine held its first fair and democratic parliamentary elections on March 26, 2006. My ultimate belief both before and after that vote was that one must adhere to democratic standards and preserve law and order.
However, I must admit that fulfillment of political obligations and responsibility for the country’s fate and people’s welfare have not become a crucial motive for many Ukrainian lawmakers.

In the past eight months, we have all been witnesses to deliberate attacks on the country’s constitutional order and a permanent power struggle violating the will of our voters. The country has seen many cynical political intrigues in the past year, but what is truly threatening is the conspicuous tendency to usurp power. The Verkhovna Rada launched an impudent and fearless campaign to entice some deputies into the ruling coalition despite the national law.

What is happening in the Verkhovna Rada now is not just a rebirth of the coalition but a blatant revision of the will of the Ukrainian voters. It is a direct path to anarchy.

All these actions create reasons to say that the parliamentary majority is unconstitutional and the government illegitimate. This must be immediately changed. As President, I demand that the parliamentary majority and its government stop acting unconstitutionally. I call on the Constitutional Court of Ukraine to immediately announce their rulings on the most controversial and important issues and insist that parliament pass a bill containing key agreements between the majority and opposition forces aimed at the fulfillment of strategic priorities of the country and its citizens.

The period of ineffective round tables is over now. Our politicians must be responsible for what they do, otherwise the Ukrainian nation will speak out.

A final warning perhaps? The coalition certainly seems to think so, with Deputy VR Chairman Adam Martyniuk holding an 'extraordinary' session of Parliament to discuss moves by Yushchenko. The Communist politician also claimed early elections were being scheduled for Sunday, May 27. This claim would appear to be supported by the announcement from Yushchenko of a meeting scheduled for April 2nd with the heads of all political parties. Under the constitution such a measure is essential before the Head of State can dissolve parliament.

Whatever Yushchenko chooses to do he must tread carefully. A mass rally is due at Independence Square on Saturday, uniting BYuT, Our Ukraine and Lutsenko's People’s Self-Defense organization. Yet Yanukovych is already sending in the troops, announcing today that his party will hold it's own rival rallies between March 29th-April 3rd. Nice timing. Starting just before the main Opposition meeting, and finishing just after the President may dissolve parliament. As I mentioned last time, Yushchenko must bare this in mind and tread carefully before reaching any decision.

Yanukovych has been out of power once before, and with the political landscape of Ukraine seemingly moving against him, the PoR leader will be well aware that any fresh ballot could usher in a BYuT/OU coalition to govern from now until the end of time. In addition to this, the only thing that prevented troops firing on demonstrators during the Orange Revolution was the refusal of then President Leonid Kuchma to push the Interior Ministry in such a direction. This time however, the President does not hold such powers. These lie with the current Minister of Interior who, whilst being a 'Socialist', has been busying himself in recent months dismissing heads of police appointed under Orange governments, left, right and centre. The possibility that Yanukovych won't go quietly is very real.

Keep watching this space and Foreign Notes for more on the situation. Mark my words, the political temperature is rising and we could be heading towards a series of crucial months for Ukraine.

Dark Days In Ukraine

It's taken a chain of events in Ukraine to power me back into blogging but whilst im taking 4 weeks to recharge my batteries after a stressful semester at Uni, this page is fully back in action!

For those of you who haven't been following events in Ukraine since the Orange Revolution, here's a quick recap. Following free and fair Parliamentary elections, the party of President Viktor Yushchenko (Our Ukraine) and of charismatic former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko (BYuT) were left out in the cold. The Party of Regions, led by ex-Presidential candidate, and Kuchma associate Viktor Yanukovych, was able to assemble a bizzare coalition between themselves (a party of Big Buisness and managed with an iron fist), the Socialists (a party known for consistently supporting Democracy since 1991, and with some relatively old school economics) and the Communists (anti-Western, anti-Capitalists). Much to the suprise of naive Western journalists who seem to be under the impression that this 'Anti-Crisis Coalition' is of the same creed as any German or Czech equivalent (a home of negotiation and moderate politics) the current government has remained intact for almost 9 months. Perhaps the alleged brown envelopes tucked under Socialist leader Moroz's bedroom door hold the key to this?

With many Westerners falling for the hot gas coming from, former convict, Yanukovych's mouth, hope had arrived that Ukrainian democracy was maturing and that the days of rigged elections, poisonings and police thuggery were over. For a time this may have appeared to be semi-believable, yet events in the past few days strike a worrying trend that could see one of Europe's newest Democracies pushed into a very dangerous situation indeed.

Since the dismissal of Interior Minister Yuri Lutsenko in 2006, tensions between the coalition on one side, and the President and opposition on the other have been growing.

Lutsenko has himself established a new 'movement' (basically a political party, although as yet unregistered), which has been garnering crowds in former Regions and Communist hot-spots such as Kharkov that the current Prime Minister can only dream of.

Infact the Regions have seen their public support slide significantly in the past few months. Yes, they've returned to their old ways - handing out jobs to the boys, shying away from any sort of transparency, and busying themselves with all manner of business other than improving the lives of their own electorate. Yet this isn't Ukaine 2002. The media is much freer now, and people can see for themselves that whilst Yushchenko and Tymoshenko may have had corruption swirling around them, and may well have proved ineffective in certain areas, they're in a completely different league to Yanukovych. Thus, the populist slogans of the Centre-Left BYuT, coupled with Tymoshenko's anti-NATO stance hold great appeal to the largely Russian speaking East (Yanukovych's core supporters).

In addition to this growth in popularity, Viktor and Yulia appear to have stopped messing about and finally formed a joint opposition in the Ukrainian Parliament (Verkohvna Rada). Using the threat of Yushchenko's veto (and the 200+ votes of the two blocs to prevent it being overriden) Yanukovych has been forced into action. The minimum wage has been increased and unrealistically high local tariffs have been overturned across the nation. All this makes Yanukovych understandably unhappy. Yet rather than start counter-acting the Orange forces moves with propositions of his own, the Prime Minister has adopted a tried, tested and failed technique. Simply negotiate with the weak and vulnerable (Yushchenko - who is allegedly compromised over information the PoR hold against certain family members), bribe (allegedly) anyone who's ideological committments are weakest, and pin the rest of the opposition up against a wall.

This has take on 3 main forms in the past few weeks.

Yet another 'Round Table' - that's code for useless talking shop where Yanukovych and Moroz spin Yushchenko a pack of lies and apologise for being naughty - occurred earlier in the week where certain agreements were reached, including in regard to the appointment of a new Foreign Minister. Sorry, I should take a step back and mention that Ukraine has been without such an official for several months now since the government sacked Borys Tarasiuk in January, and refused to approve all subsequent nominations from the President. Infact only today, less than 24 hours after reaching a compromise, the Rada once again rejected Yushchenko's nomination. It would seem the government won't rest until one of it's own has been nominated, so one can only guess how that will play out in the coming weeks.

Today, Anatoliy Kinakh, an Our Ukraine lawmaker, and Yushchenko associate seemingly 'defected' to the Ukrainian government. Some bloggers and forum posters have alleged this to be as a result of a bribe, something that seems increasingly possible given the bizzare about-turn Moroz made in July. This could potentially leave Yushchenko's party with 10 fewer MP's and the government closing in on it's target of 300 deputies by the end of the year. This number would allow Yanukovych to change the constitution and could render the Presidency purely symbolic - or even worse impeach the hero of the Orange Revolution. Unless Our Ukraine can expel the dissenting members, things are certainly looking much bleaker in the Rada.

Pinned up against the wall? Well I point to these two outrageously Soviet attempts to silence the opposition that occurred just today. Firstly Lutsenko's flat was searched, without a warrant, by the police looking for weapons and an Israeli passport (a good bit of anti-semitism to whip up some hatred for an increasingly popular man). Secondly, and largely unnoticed was this. The cancellation of the political talk show 'Toloka' on state television. Clearly Yanukoych is latching on to the disadvantages of an uncontrolled media.

All of these events add up to a very dark stage in the development of Ukraine. President Yushchenko can still dissolve parliament and call fresh elections under certain conditions. Yet the Constitutional Court is still in the process of deciding if some of those conditions have been reached. The refusal by Parliament to approve Yushchenko's nominee to the Foreign Ministry could prove crucial in disbanding the current Rada. Yet this policy seems fraught with potential danger. Yanukovych has been out of power once before, and with the political landscape of Ukraine seemingly moving towards a 3-party system, the PoR leader will be well aware that any fresh ballot could usher in a BYuT/OU coalition to govern from now until the end of time. In addition to this, the only thing that prevented troops firing on demonstrators during the Orange Revolution was the refusal of then President Leonid Kuchma to push the Interior Ministry in such a direction. This time however, the President does not hold such powers. These lie with the current Minister of Interior who, whilst being a 'Socialist', has been busying himself in recent months dismissing heads of police appointed under Orange governments, left, right and centre. The possibility that Yanukovych won't go quietly is very real. As is the potential that more VR deputies can be bought off by the PoR.

Yet the situation is not hopeless. Yulia Tymoshenko may proove to be the only figure who can prevent Ukraine sliding back to it's authoritarian days. Yanukovych may well appreciate that the population of Western Ukraine will never bend to his will - the Orange Revolution demonstrated this - yet, may still think such an occurance can take place in the East. Do not be suprised if any disquiet in the East is harshly dealt with - the government cannot afford to lose any face amongst it's core of supporters. Yet if Yulia, and to a lesser extent Lutsenko, can rally Eastern Ukraine around themeselves, and show what a thug and enemy of the people Yanukovych is, the Party of Regions could be pushed out of power. It's true to say that the Orange Revolution only really occurred in the West and Centre of Ukraine, with the East largely uninvolved and still perceiving the 'Oranges' as the enemy. PoR was able to exploit this whilst in opposition, because it wasn't actually in a position to do anything, and could thus promise the moon to Eastern Ukraine as opposed to the squabbling 'Westerners'. However, with an unfettered media and a useless government, the East appears to be awakening. People must ask themselves why it is the East that is witnessing the largest demonstrations, either in favour of Lutsenko or against government policies. In addition to this, in the past few weeks 'Donbass' a newspaper largely associated with the PoR has become increasingly critical of the government. It today denounced the raids against Lutsenko, and has offered some support to BYuT in recent months. It would seem that even they are unable to place a positive spin on current events in Ukraine.

The tide is turning, and an opportunity is arising for Ukraine. Yet don't underestimate the determination of Yanukovych to hold on to power at all costs. The Orange Revolution will either mature or be murdered on the streets of the East. And that point is coming ever closer....

I leave the final words to the leader of Our Ukraine, Vyacheslav Kyrylenko...

“Our Ukraine can’t keep working in the parliament on the back of political repressions, that take place in the country...the search of the appartment of Orange revolution activist Yuri Lutsenko is being conducted at the moment. It does not mean that the government fights against criminals. [Such] structures return to their old method of reprisals against politicians. Every citizen has a right to express his or her opinion, including public protest. If the...structures and the Prosecutor’s Office don’t accept that, as well as the government and the majority, it means Ukraine is back to autumn 2004. We will face threats, repressions, blackmail and other methods from Kuchma times. Today’s events give us proof, that as the “anti-crisis” coalition does not react at the united opposition’s declaration concerning Tsushko and Medvedko (Interior Minister and Prosecutor General), it means they support them. The lawsuit against Lutsenko is just a beginning.”

Kyrgyzstan: The End Of Eternal Crisis?

In the early hours of this morning (for both those in Bishkek and us here in Europe) a Constitutent Assembly was formed to draft a new Basic Law for Kyrgyzstan. Earlier in the day President Bakiyev had presented his own document to Parliament, which offered amongst other things the right of Parliament to appoint the Prime Minister, but....not much else. Infact some argued that the document strengthened the President's hand. Unsuprisingly the opposition rejected the proposal, and somehow or other managed to mobilise it's biggest crowd yet. Estimates of 40,000 people thronged the streets. For more on the day of protests, see the excellent KyrgyzReport.

So what do the events of today mean for Kyrgyzstan?

Well one thing is for sure, the President appears to have backed himself into a corner. As I stated many times before at Democracy Rising, Bakiyev is a textbook example of what happens when an average politcian who seems to spend all day doing nothing gets to the the top of the political tree. The President has now lost the support of the Parliamentary majority. Even if the constitutional reforms fail, enough MP's now stand opposed to Bakiyev to remove his Prime Minister and prevent any effective work from taking place (making Bakiyev a lame-duck). The President has also lost the support of the police who have openly sided with the demonstrators (Bakiyev could have potentially used them to crush the protests, but didn't). However what may come to be seen as a crucial blow is the announcement by the Constitutional Court Chairwoman Cholpon Bayekova that a smaller number of MPs than the necessary quorum could adopt the law as the situation was "extraordinary". This is not an act of political neutrality. By effectively bending the law, one of the country's top judges has sided with the opposition.

As for Bakiyev's chief political partner, Felix Kulov must be cursing both his boss and his own decision making in the past few days. He had the support of the opposition and the chance to resign from an unpopular and ineffective government yet he threw it all away. Quite what his motivation in this situation was is unclear. Perhaps he hoped that by acting as a neutral arbitrator he could cut himself some kind of deal with the opposition that would allow him to keep the post of PM, whilst at the same time nudging Bakiyev into ceeding some of his powers to the cabinet. Nonetheless im sure Kulov will regret this, and his decision not to stand in last years Presidential election for years to come.

And the opposition?

Well things are still not certain, they now have just 3 and a half hours to find the required number of deputies to support their motion. This is still uncertain, yet a wave of defections may persuade even the most die-hard Bakiyev supporters to throw in their lot with the opposition. However, expect a spike in tensions, and possibly even violence, if moves towards a new constitution are blocked by certain power groups.

If the new constitution does take hold though, we can say that the opposition appears to be emerging as the likely new force of power in Kyrgyzstan. This time though no blood has been shed, in fact things have been done in a fashion which echoes that of Czechoslovakia's velvet revolution in the 1980's. However many challenges lay ahead. They cannot afford to squander this last chance for Democracy and Economic Growth. A plan (something the old tandem lacked) must be formulated to pull Kyrgyzstan out of the current mess and dire poverty.

The implications of course for the region are likely that cold water will be poured on the forces of Democracy in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. In Astana particularly, the government has been watching Bishkek closely as a possible model for Democratic reform. Yet the Tulip Revolution in 2005 sent Nazarbayev and Karimov into panic, with clamp-downs against the opposition, and a clear turn away from pluralism. The dangers of Askar Akayev's attempt at masquerading as a Democrat are clear for all authoritarian leaders to see. By giving a little freedom, and distributing a bit of power, expectations rise and leaders often fall. Expect an extremely watered down conclusion from the Kazakhstani Constitutional Reform commission in the coming months than we might have previously expected.

I would like to conclude by addressing Bakiyev's handling of the crisis, which some may see as a positive. Whilst Akayev attempted to put down attempts at revolution, the current President has shyed away from such an approach. However I don't believe this is as a result of some deep-rooted belief in Democracy (something I doubt any of the leaders have) it is quite simply because Bakiyev is useless. Perhaps corruption has reached the highest levels of the state and the President is unaware or uninformed of the true state of affairs, but Bakiyev does not, and never did, seem even slightly flustered by the continuous state of protest Kyrgyzstan has been in since March 2005. It's difficult to see where he goes from here on in, but perhaps in the long run the inability to act on the part of the President may mean he goes down in history as the first Central Asian President to cause a parliamentary form of government. A potentially ironic hero status for a man so incompetent.