Dark Days In Ukraine

It's taken a chain of events in Ukraine to power me back into blogging but whilst im taking 4 weeks to recharge my batteries after a stressful semester at Uni, this page is fully back in action!

For those of you who haven't been following events in Ukraine since the Orange Revolution, here's a quick recap. Following free and fair Parliamentary elections, the party of President Viktor Yushchenko (Our Ukraine) and of charismatic former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko (BYuT) were left out in the cold. The Party of Regions, led by ex-Presidential candidate, and Kuchma associate Viktor Yanukovych, was able to assemble a bizzare coalition between themselves (a party of Big Buisness and managed with an iron fist), the Socialists (a party known for consistently supporting Democracy since 1991, and with some relatively old school economics) and the Communists (anti-Western, anti-Capitalists). Much to the suprise of naive Western journalists who seem to be under the impression that this 'Anti-Crisis Coalition' is of the same creed as any German or Czech equivalent (a home of negotiation and moderate politics) the current government has remained intact for almost 9 months. Perhaps the alleged brown envelopes tucked under Socialist leader Moroz's bedroom door hold the key to this?

With many Westerners falling for the hot gas coming from, former convict, Yanukovych's mouth, hope had arrived that Ukrainian democracy was maturing and that the days of rigged elections, poisonings and police thuggery were over. For a time this may have appeared to be semi-believable, yet events in the past few days strike a worrying trend that could see one of Europe's newest Democracies pushed into a very dangerous situation indeed.

Since the dismissal of Interior Minister Yuri Lutsenko in 2006, tensions between the coalition on one side, and the President and opposition on the other have been growing.

Lutsenko has himself established a new 'movement' (basically a political party, although as yet unregistered), which has been garnering crowds in former Regions and Communist hot-spots such as Kharkov that the current Prime Minister can only dream of.

Infact the Regions have seen their public support slide significantly in the past few months. Yes, they've returned to their old ways - handing out jobs to the boys, shying away from any sort of transparency, and busying themselves with all manner of business other than improving the lives of their own electorate. Yet this isn't Ukaine 2002. The media is much freer now, and people can see for themselves that whilst Yushchenko and Tymoshenko may have had corruption swirling around them, and may well have proved ineffective in certain areas, they're in a completely different league to Yanukovych. Thus, the populist slogans of the Centre-Left BYuT, coupled with Tymoshenko's anti-NATO stance hold great appeal to the largely Russian speaking East (Yanukovych's core supporters).

In addition to this growth in popularity, Viktor and Yulia appear to have stopped messing about and finally formed a joint opposition in the Ukrainian Parliament (Verkohvna Rada). Using the threat of Yushchenko's veto (and the 200+ votes of the two blocs to prevent it being overriden) Yanukovych has been forced into action. The minimum wage has been increased and unrealistically high local tariffs have been overturned across the nation. All this makes Yanukovych understandably unhappy. Yet rather than start counter-acting the Orange forces moves with propositions of his own, the Prime Minister has adopted a tried, tested and failed technique. Simply negotiate with the weak and vulnerable (Yushchenko - who is allegedly compromised over information the PoR hold against certain family members), bribe (allegedly) anyone who's ideological committments are weakest, and pin the rest of the opposition up against a wall.

This has take on 3 main forms in the past few weeks.

Yet another 'Round Table' - that's code for useless talking shop where Yanukovych and Moroz spin Yushchenko a pack of lies and apologise for being naughty - occurred earlier in the week where certain agreements were reached, including in regard to the appointment of a new Foreign Minister. Sorry, I should take a step back and mention that Ukraine has been without such an official for several months now since the government sacked Borys Tarasiuk in January, and refused to approve all subsequent nominations from the President. Infact only today, less than 24 hours after reaching a compromise, the Rada once again rejected Yushchenko's nomination. It would seem the government won't rest until one of it's own has been nominated, so one can only guess how that will play out in the coming weeks.

Today, Anatoliy Kinakh, an Our Ukraine lawmaker, and Yushchenko associate seemingly 'defected' to the Ukrainian government. Some bloggers and forum posters have alleged this to be as a result of a bribe, something that seems increasingly possible given the bizzare about-turn Moroz made in July. This could potentially leave Yushchenko's party with 10 fewer MP's and the government closing in on it's target of 300 deputies by the end of the year. This number would allow Yanukovych to change the constitution and could render the Presidency purely symbolic - or even worse impeach the hero of the Orange Revolution. Unless Our Ukraine can expel the dissenting members, things are certainly looking much bleaker in the Rada.

Pinned up against the wall? Well I point to these two outrageously Soviet attempts to silence the opposition that occurred just today. Firstly Lutsenko's flat was searched, without a warrant, by the police looking for weapons and an Israeli passport (a good bit of anti-semitism to whip up some hatred for an increasingly popular man). Secondly, and largely unnoticed was this. The cancellation of the political talk show 'Toloka' on state television. Clearly Yanukoych is latching on to the disadvantages of an uncontrolled media.

All of these events add up to a very dark stage in the development of Ukraine. President Yushchenko can still dissolve parliament and call fresh elections under certain conditions. Yet the Constitutional Court is still in the process of deciding if some of those conditions have been reached. The refusal by Parliament to approve Yushchenko's nominee to the Foreign Ministry could prove crucial in disbanding the current Rada. Yet this policy seems fraught with potential danger. Yanukovych has been out of power once before, and with the political landscape of Ukraine seemingly moving towards a 3-party system, the PoR leader will be well aware that any fresh ballot could usher in a BYuT/OU coalition to govern from now until the end of time. In addition to this, the only thing that prevented troops firing on demonstrators during the Orange Revolution was the refusal of then President Leonid Kuchma to push the Interior Ministry in such a direction. This time however, the President does not hold such powers. These lie with the current Minister of Interior who, whilst being a 'Socialist', has been busying himself in recent months dismissing heads of police appointed under Orange governments, left, right and centre. The possibility that Yanukovych won't go quietly is very real. As is the potential that more VR deputies can be bought off by the PoR.

Yet the situation is not hopeless. Yulia Tymoshenko may proove to be the only figure who can prevent Ukraine sliding back to it's authoritarian days. Yanukovych may well appreciate that the population of Western Ukraine will never bend to his will - the Orange Revolution demonstrated this - yet, may still think such an occurance can take place in the East. Do not be suprised if any disquiet in the East is harshly dealt with - the government cannot afford to lose any face amongst it's core of supporters. Yet if Yulia, and to a lesser extent Lutsenko, can rally Eastern Ukraine around themeselves, and show what a thug and enemy of the people Yanukovych is, the Party of Regions could be pushed out of power. It's true to say that the Orange Revolution only really occurred in the West and Centre of Ukraine, with the East largely uninvolved and still perceiving the 'Oranges' as the enemy. PoR was able to exploit this whilst in opposition, because it wasn't actually in a position to do anything, and could thus promise the moon to Eastern Ukraine as opposed to the squabbling 'Westerners'. However, with an unfettered media and a useless government, the East appears to be awakening. People must ask themselves why it is the East that is witnessing the largest demonstrations, either in favour of Lutsenko or against government policies. In addition to this, in the past few weeks 'Donbass' a newspaper largely associated with the PoR has become increasingly critical of the government. It today denounced the raids against Lutsenko, and has offered some support to BYuT in recent months. It would seem that even they are unable to place a positive spin on current events in Ukraine.

The tide is turning, and an opportunity is arising for Ukraine. Yet don't underestimate the determination of Yanukovych to hold on to power at all costs. The Orange Revolution will either mature or be murdered on the streets of the East. And that point is coming ever closer....

I leave the final words to the leader of Our Ukraine, Vyacheslav Kyrylenko...

“Our Ukraine can’t keep working in the parliament on the back of political repressions, that take place in the country...the search of the appartment of Orange revolution activist Yuri Lutsenko is being conducted at the moment. It does not mean that the government fights against criminals. [Such] structures return to their old method of reprisals against politicians. Every citizen has a right to express his or her opinion, including public protest. If the...structures and the Prosecutor’s Office don’t accept that, as well as the government and the majority, it means Ukraine is back to autumn 2004. We will face threats, repressions, blackmail and other methods from Kuchma times. Today’s events give us proof, that as the “anti-crisis” coalition does not react at the united opposition’s declaration concerning Tsushko and Medvedko (Interior Minister and Prosecutor General), it means they support them. The lawsuit against Lutsenko is just a beginning.”