Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Events Overnight

I can't post any of these stories as they're subscription, but here is what's been happening overnight;

  • Yulia Tymoshenko announced a joint list of Democratic forces for the election

  • The VR Banned the Cabinet from allocating money for holding early elections.

  • The VR appealled to the Constitutional Court regarding its dismissal

  • The VR Reinstated the Central Election Commission that falsified the 2004 election

  • Yanukovych addressed the nation

***I've been informed by several people that there were no clashes overnight. I would likely to point out that I was merely relaying information I had received, as I frequently do. Unfortunately from my position in London I can't always independently verify such accounts. We all hope that there will be no violence during this period, and that Ukraine hold peaceful elections. Based on the claims of others I have decided to remove this bullet point.

Yanukovych Travels Back In Time

It's November 2004 in Ukraine. Well it might as well be, thanks to PM Viktor Yanukovych. Quite what his American spin doctors are making of his actions tonight we can only imagine.

As Foreign Notes have been claiming Yanu is finally showing his true colours, and has decided to stamp his feet and throw a hissy fit.

One of the first such moves was the decision by the VR (minus the Orange forces) to ignore the Presidential decree. Now whilst I can in part sympathise with the position of Moroz and other crooks, who don't want to lose their government jobs, this is hardly a constructive way of going about things. Would it not be better to take this to the electorate? To tell people how outrageous the President's actions are? Will ignoring Yushchenko really do PoR any favours? Does it show that they're afraid of elections?

The second move, which even suprised me a little was the vote to re-instate the man who falsified the Presidential election of 2004 - Serhiy Kivalov. Surely Yanukovych has played a very foolish card here. There is no real reason to replace the current CEC because as the PM himself has noted, the March 2006 elections were fully democratic. Furthermore all Yanu achieves by passing this vote is to aggrevate the opposition, and possibly a few swing voters, who were now leaning towards supporting Yulia anyway. What makes me laugh about this most foolish of decree's is that it won't be executed. Yush will just veto it, and the Orange parties will never help the government to override the decision. It's just throwing a hissy fit for the sake of it.

So what is the PM going to do? Don't be suprised if the Constitutional Court takes a very long time reaching a conclusion about the legality of this decree before 'agreeing' with Yanukovych.

As I mentioned earlier, we are in very dangerous waters tonight. If the parliament refuses to dissolve, then it can be considered illegitimate by pro-Yushchenko voters. Yet the decree itself raises questions about Yushchenko's legitimacy. To ignore the President is a road to nowhere - the President won't sign any of the governments bills, and they therefore either become worthless measures, or they are illegally implemented by simply ignoring the need for the Head of State to sign them into law. That in itself would be highly unconstitutional, and can only lead to violent confrontations.

In the next few days we'll hear much about legitimacy, with each side claiming to exclusively hold it. Yet the truth is the situation is an absolute legal mess.

To reiterate a point I made a few weeks back Yanukovych won't go quietly. He has been out of power once before, and with the political landscape of Ukraine seemingly moving towards a 3-party system, the PoR leader will be well aware that any fresh ballot could usher in a BYuT/OU coalition to govern from now until the end of time. In addition to this, the only thing that prevented troops firing on demonstrators during the Orange Revolution was the refusal of then President Leonid Kuchma to push the Interior Ministry in such a direction. This time however, the President does not hold such powers. These lie with the current Minister of Interior who, whilst being a 'Socialist', has been busying himself in recent months dismissing heads of police appointed under Orange governments, left, right and centre.

I end tonight though with a message of hope.

Since the Orange Revolution, I have not heard of one major incident where the police turned their truncheons on protestors. Low and Mid-Level Interior personnel appear to have climbed a psychological hill since 2004. I strongly doubt that the men and women who witnessed the peaceful outcome of Maidan, and the free and fair ballots that followed have 'the fear' anymore. The fear that there will never be change, and that to refuse orders will lead to dismissal or even violence directed at oneself. They will not betray the people's will. Neither will the low and mid level staff of the Central Election Commission, who faced the same battle, and know they can achieve peace and Democracy again.

As I mentioned before, it's true to say that the Orange Revolution only really occurred in the West and Centre of Ukraine, with the East largely uninvolved and still perceiving the 'Oranges' as the enemy. PoR was able to exploit this whilst in opposition, because it wasn't actually in a position to do anything, and could thus promise the moon to Eastern Ukraine as opposed to the squabbling 'Westerners'. However, with an unfettered media and a useless government, the East appears to be awakening. People must ask themselves why it was the East that witnessed the largest demonstrations in recent weeks, either in favour of Lutsenko or against government policies. In addition to this, in the past few weeks 'Donbass' a newspaper largely associated with the PoR has become increasingly critical of the government. These changes are not cosmetic, and the East truly is realising what a government led by Viktor Yanukovych actually entails.

The childish actions from the PoR hotheads tonight will impress nobody - not even their own supporters. It will be difficult for Yanukovych to go back to his recent tact of paying lip-service to Democracy now. Tonight he has truly embarassed himself, and it is plain for all to see that he is a dictatorial thug.

The stakes are higher, but the Orange Revolution may well be about to be completed...

Monday, April 02, 2007

Dissolved

Well he's proved me wrong, and possibly assured his place (in at least Western) Ukraine's history books. The Rada is dissolved and fresh elections are on the way for May 27th as earlier predicted.

Speaking to the nation this evening Yushchenko said "I dissolve the parliament, not because it's my right but because it's required...The current parliament is breaking the constitution and it threatens our country's future.''

Are we seeing early reprisals though? Not too sure what to make of this. The Ukrainian Parliament is currently in emergency session, and there appears to be a flurry of activity (although only the coalition parties are meeting). Apparently 'Yanukovych and top government officials sat in the hall looking glum as the speaker of the Parliament, Oleksandr Moroz told lawmakers that Yushchenko had no legal basis to make such a decision'. According to sources the Rada is debating a resolution branding any order by Yushchenko to dissolve parliament unconstitutional. Something tells me we're on the verge of a long period of wrangling. Let's hope things can be resolved peacefully.

Yushchenko has appealed for calm

"The political situation in Ukraine is under control and remains stable. The presidential decree to dissolve the parliament is subject to execution. I warn all hotheads against any unlawful deeds and moves. I am appealing to all citizens of Ukraine. We are passing a difficult but democratic way. Don't yield to any provocative action."

Wise words

However with the rhetoric coming from all sides things could be about to get incredibly dangerous. More is at stake now than during the Orange Revolution. PoR won't go quietly, the next scheduled elections after May will be over 2 years away and Moroz's career is on the line...

Your thoughts?

Coalition Attempts To Talk It's Way Out Of Crisis

Apologies for not posting yesterday, was pretty unwell all day.

Well the rallies did infact take place on Saturday, and thankfully were virtually incident free. Different estimates exist about exactly how many people showed up, but conservative estimates put both meetings at around 30, 000 a piece. Some have even claimed that 70, 000 turned up for the opposition gathering - something that visuals I have seen would certainly seem to back up.

There were few suprises during the rally, with the expected reactions from all sides, yet whilst these demonstrations went on, Yushchenko was busy demonstrating his position at the Our Ukraine congress. It was good to see the President on the attack - a position he seems more comfortable in than as part of a government. Yet for all the chatter, Monday is a new day, and a crucial point for Ukrainian politics.

As planned, crisis talks have been underway all afternoon between the leaders of the VR factions. Whilst these talks are necessary under the Constitution before the President can dissolve Parliament, im increasingly becoming convinced that Yushchenko has no intention of dissolving the Rada. As I mentioned a few days ago certain events lead me to believe that Yush is quite happy to allow the Anti-Crisis Coalition to continue ruling provided that it doesn't get any bigger. The violations of the Constitution from the Party of Regions have been numerous, and their murky economic policies should provide enough ammunition to boot Yanukovych out of power. Yet the President is only focusing on this one issue - the defection of Kinakh to the government.

The only explanations I can offer for this fall on two points. The first being that Our Ukraine is unlikely to beat, or even equal it's showing at the last ballot in any fresh elections. In the short term Yush needs to guarantee that Deputies such as Kinakh aren't jumping ship and damaging the party's already dented reputation. He may be hoping that with time his party can strengthen in popularity, and the current governing blocs can be given enough rope to hang themselves out of the next VR.

Yet I believe Tymoshenko is a more important factor guiding the President's decisions. Yush sacked her in 2005 as she got ever so close to investigating members of his own inner circle for corruption (although problems were emerging in the economy from her populist measures). Yushchenko's unwillingness to appoint her PM (and the behind the scenes negotiating with PoR) after the 2006 elections may well have hinged on this issue, and the fear that the President had should Tymoshenko have gained power. We have to ask ourselves has this situation between the two Orange leaders really changed since last year? I don't think so. Furthermore, whilst Yanukovych may well be a corrupt crook, at least he isn't setting up enquiries into Yushchenko's associates. This is what the issue really boils down to. Yushchenko may well be more interested in protecting the interests of people like Porshenko - a major thorn in Tymoshenko's side - than kicking out this increasingly authoritarian government.

Yushchenko is due to announce his decision later, but has Adam Martyniuk provided a way out of the crisis for the government? If this temporary moratorium is enforced, the President will have lost the only reason he seems to find strong enough to dissolve the Rada. He might suprise us all, but im betting that Yushchenko blows this last chance to show he has some guts, and decides to negotiate with the government. The more the Anti-Crisis Coalition can make Yushchenko look weak, the greater the drop in support for him and his party, and thus the smaller the chance of VR dissolution.

Stay tuned...