Coalition Attempts To Talk It's Way Out Of Crisis

Apologies for not posting yesterday, was pretty unwell all day.

Well the rallies did infact take place on Saturday, and thankfully were virtually incident free. Different estimates exist about exactly how many people showed up, but conservative estimates put both meetings at around 30, 000 a piece. Some have even claimed that 70, 000 turned up for the opposition gathering - something that visuals I have seen would certainly seem to back up.

There were few suprises during the rally, with the expected reactions from all sides, yet whilst these demonstrations went on, Yushchenko was busy demonstrating his position at the Our Ukraine congress. It was good to see the President on the attack - a position he seems more comfortable in than as part of a government. Yet for all the chatter, Monday is a new day, and a crucial point for Ukrainian politics.

As planned, crisis talks have been underway all afternoon between the leaders of the VR factions. Whilst these talks are necessary under the Constitution before the President can dissolve Parliament, im increasingly becoming convinced that Yushchenko has no intention of dissolving the Rada. As I mentioned a few days ago certain events lead me to believe that Yush is quite happy to allow the Anti-Crisis Coalition to continue ruling provided that it doesn't get any bigger. The violations of the Constitution from the Party of Regions have been numerous, and their murky economic policies should provide enough ammunition to boot Yanukovych out of power. Yet the President is only focusing on this one issue - the defection of Kinakh to the government.

The only explanations I can offer for this fall on two points. The first being that Our Ukraine is unlikely to beat, or even equal it's showing at the last ballot in any fresh elections. In the short term Yush needs to guarantee that Deputies such as Kinakh aren't jumping ship and damaging the party's already dented reputation. He may be hoping that with time his party can strengthen in popularity, and the current governing blocs can be given enough rope to hang themselves out of the next VR.

Yet I believe Tymoshenko is a more important factor guiding the President's decisions. Yush sacked her in 2005 as she got ever so close to investigating members of his own inner circle for corruption (although problems were emerging in the economy from her populist measures). Yushchenko's unwillingness to appoint her PM (and the behind the scenes negotiating with PoR) after the 2006 elections may well have hinged on this issue, and the fear that the President had should Tymoshenko have gained power. We have to ask ourselves has this situation between the two Orange leaders really changed since last year? I don't think so. Furthermore, whilst Yanukovych may well be a corrupt crook, at least he isn't setting up enquiries into Yushchenko's associates. This is what the issue really boils down to. Yushchenko may well be more interested in protecting the interests of people like Porshenko - a major thorn in Tymoshenko's side - than kicking out this increasingly authoritarian government.

Yushchenko is due to announce his decision later, but has Adam Martyniuk provided a way out of the crisis for the government? If this temporary moratorium is enforced, the President will have lost the only reason he seems to find strong enough to dissolve the Rada. He might suprise us all, but im betting that Yushchenko blows this last chance to show he has some guts, and decides to negotiate with the government. The more the Anti-Crisis Coalition can make Yushchenko look weak, the greater the drop in support for him and his party, and thus the smaller the chance of VR dissolution.

Stay tuned...