Yanukovych Travels Back In Time

It's November 2004 in Ukraine. Well it might as well be, thanks to PM Viktor Yanukovych. Quite what his American spin doctors are making of his actions tonight we can only imagine.

As Foreign Notes have been claiming Yanu is finally showing his true colours, and has decided to stamp his feet and throw a hissy fit.

One of the first such moves was the decision by the VR (minus the Orange forces) to ignore the Presidential decree. Now whilst I can in part sympathise with the position of Moroz and other crooks, who don't want to lose their government jobs, this is hardly a constructive way of going about things. Would it not be better to take this to the electorate? To tell people how outrageous the President's actions are? Will ignoring Yushchenko really do PoR any favours? Does it show that they're afraid of elections?

The second move, which even suprised me a little was the vote to re-instate the man who falsified the Presidential election of 2004 - Serhiy Kivalov. Surely Yanukovych has played a very foolish card here. There is no real reason to replace the current CEC because as the PM himself has noted, the March 2006 elections were fully democratic. Furthermore all Yanu achieves by passing this vote is to aggrevate the opposition, and possibly a few swing voters, who were now leaning towards supporting Yulia anyway. What makes me laugh about this most foolish of decree's is that it won't be executed. Yush will just veto it, and the Orange parties will never help the government to override the decision. It's just throwing a hissy fit for the sake of it.

So what is the PM going to do? Don't be suprised if the Constitutional Court takes a very long time reaching a conclusion about the legality of this decree before 'agreeing' with Yanukovych.

As I mentioned earlier, we are in very dangerous waters tonight. If the parliament refuses to dissolve, then it can be considered illegitimate by pro-Yushchenko voters. Yet the decree itself raises questions about Yushchenko's legitimacy. To ignore the President is a road to nowhere - the President won't sign any of the governments bills, and they therefore either become worthless measures, or they are illegally implemented by simply ignoring the need for the Head of State to sign them into law. That in itself would be highly unconstitutional, and can only lead to violent confrontations.

In the next few days we'll hear much about legitimacy, with each side claiming to exclusively hold it. Yet the truth is the situation is an absolute legal mess.

To reiterate a point I made a few weeks back Yanukovych won't go quietly. He has been out of power once before, and with the political landscape of Ukraine seemingly moving towards a 3-party system, the PoR leader will be well aware that any fresh ballot could usher in a BYuT/OU coalition to govern from now until the end of time. In addition to this, the only thing that prevented troops firing on demonstrators during the Orange Revolution was the refusal of then President Leonid Kuchma to push the Interior Ministry in such a direction. This time however, the President does not hold such powers. These lie with the current Minister of Interior who, whilst being a 'Socialist', has been busying himself in recent months dismissing heads of police appointed under Orange governments, left, right and centre.

I end tonight though with a message of hope.

Since the Orange Revolution, I have not heard of one major incident where the police turned their truncheons on protestors. Low and Mid-Level Interior personnel appear to have climbed a psychological hill since 2004. I strongly doubt that the men and women who witnessed the peaceful outcome of Maidan, and the free and fair ballots that followed have 'the fear' anymore. The fear that there will never be change, and that to refuse orders will lead to dismissal or even violence directed at oneself. They will not betray the people's will. Neither will the low and mid level staff of the Central Election Commission, who faced the same battle, and know they can achieve peace and Democracy again.

As I mentioned before, it's true to say that the Orange Revolution only really occurred in the West and Centre of Ukraine, with the East largely uninvolved and still perceiving the 'Oranges' as the enemy. PoR was able to exploit this whilst in opposition, because it wasn't actually in a position to do anything, and could thus promise the moon to Eastern Ukraine as opposed to the squabbling 'Westerners'. However, with an unfettered media and a useless government, the East appears to be awakening. People must ask themselves why it was the East that witnessed the largest demonstrations in recent weeks, either in favour of Lutsenko or against government policies. In addition to this, in the past few weeks 'Donbass' a newspaper largely associated with the PoR has become increasingly critical of the government. These changes are not cosmetic, and the East truly is realising what a government led by Viktor Yanukovych actually entails.

The childish actions from the PoR hotheads tonight will impress nobody - not even their own supporters. It will be difficult for Yanukovych to go back to his recent tact of paying lip-service to Democracy now. Tonight he has truly embarassed himself, and it is plain for all to see that he is a dictatorial thug.

The stakes are higher, but the Orange Revolution may well be about to be completed...